Reality check

Atlanta won its sixth consecutive game yesterday, 6-3 vs. Washington in ten innings. It was the Braves tenth consecutive win on the road and it gave the club three straight road sweeps.

 

Not bad at all.

 

prado.jpgOnly problem is the Braves return home today and face a must-win situation vs. Florida. If Atlanta doesn't make it seven straight wins, the reality is the first six won't matter for much - that's because Colorado and Philly held on yesterday for one-run victories, moving the Braves that much closer to elimination.

 

The Braves are five back of Philly with seven games left on the schedule and there really isn't anything to be done about it. I guess we can hope Philly loses seven straight, but I don't see that working out so well.

 

The Braves are only 2.5 back of Colorado. The Rockies have just six games left, so a win tonight would leave the Braves two back with six to play. And a loss would undo all the hard work from these past few days.

 

If we fall three back with six to play then we might as well be pulling for Philly to act like the Mets from a couple of years back, because that's what we'll need to get an invitation to October.

 

Jair Jurrjens gets the ball tonight vs. Anibal Sanchez. Jurrjens has emerged as one of the best starters in the league while Sanchez is just 3-7. Okay, I'm trying to be optimistic. Sanchez only has three wins, but he's beaten the Braves twice already this year. And in his most recent outing he tossed eight innings of shutout ball vs. Philly.

 

In other words, tonight is pretty much it. Jurrjens and the Braves step up again and make it seven wins in a row, or else reality finally begins to set in.

 

Trivia tidbit: The strong play of Martin Prado has contributed significantly to the Braves postseason push. He scored two runs in yesterday's victory vs. Washington, giving him at least one run scored in ten consecutive games. That ties him with Shane Victorino, Johnny Damon, and Prince Fielder for the longest such streak in the majors this season.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Braves on verge of another road sweep

hanson.jpgAtlanta won its fifth consecutive game last night. The 11-5 victory vs. Washington was also the Braves ninth straight road victory. "It's getting to be a lot more fun. I think we're pretty good right now," said Bobby Cox. Tommy Hanson is pretty good right now, too. The rookie improved to 11-4 after pitching seven strong innings - and he's only been with the club since the end of June.

 

It's been 15 years since Atlanta won ten straight road games, but that's exactly what the Braves need today. A victory would mean back-to-back-to-back road sweeps for Atlanta - St. Louis, New York, and Washington - and more importantly, it would keep the Braves firmly entrenched in the Wild Card hunt as they return home for the season's final seven games, regardless of what Colorado does today vs. St. Louis.

 

St. Louis clinched its division last night and now Tony La Russa can begin resting starters and lining up his rotation for the playoffs, but the Cardinals still have an eye on the league's best record and home field advantage in the postseason - and La Russa will make sure the Rockies get a good game today.

 

Derek Lowe will get the ball for Atlanta today vs. Livan Hernandez and the Nationals.

 

Hernandez is 1-7 with a 7.33 earned run average in his last nine starts, while Lowe has won three consecutive road starts. If all goes well today vs. Washington, then the Braves will return home no worse than 2.5 back of Colorado.

 

Colorado has an off day on Monday when the Braves begin a three-game set with Florida, and - praise to God - Josh Johnson is pitching today vs. New York, so the Braves will not have to face him at all in that series.

 

I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but best case scenario is the Rockies lose today and the Braves win today and tomorrow to move within one game with six to play.

 

On Saturday the Braves probability of winning the Wild Card (click here to see how it's calculated) was reported by ESPN to be approximately ten percent. Today it's ticked up to nearly twenty percent.

 

It could happen.

 

Trivia tidbit: Atlanta scored four runs vs. Washington during the first inning on Saturday, upping its season total to 77 first inning runs. Thanks to a rotation that has given up only 42 first inning runs, Atlanta has outscored its opponents by 35 runs during the first inning of play this season. That's the second best advantage in all of baseball. Only the Dodgers have done better, outscoring opponents by 66 runs in the first inning of play.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Vazquez and Braves win fourth straight

The Braves 4-1 victory vs. Washington last night was the club's fourth consecutive win and it was also the fourth consecutive winning start for pitcher Javier Vazquez, who tossed a complete game three-hitter. Atlanta is still six games back of Philly and 3.5 games back of Colorado, but the Braves refuse to quit.

 

Colorado got a huge performance from Aaron Cook last night and the Rockies got a 2-1 walk-off win vs. St. Louis. Bobby Cox said of the Cardinals, "They need to beat those mountain boys up a little bit."

 

No kidding.

 

With just nine games left on the schedule, the Braves can ill afford to lose any of them. The club has won 12 of 14 overall, but even if Atlanta keeps up this pace there just aren't enough games left to catch Colorado unless the Braves get some help from St. Louis, Milwaukee, and LA.

 

Philly needs to win just four of its last nine games to clinch the N.L. East - which means that even if the Braves won out and closed the season with 13 straight wins, Philly would have to go 3-6 vs. Milwaukee, Houston, and Florida in order for the Braves to tie for the division lead.

 

That's just not going to happen.

 

Atlanta's only realistic chance is to catch Colorado and to do that we're still going to need a lot of help. Colorado has just eight games left, and if the Rockies go just 4-4 then the Braves need to finish 8-1 just to force a playoff for the Wild Card.

 

And while that's still a long shot, it's not impossible.

 

Today's pitching matchup once again favor the Braves: Tommy Hanson vs. Garrett Mock (3-9, 5.83 ERA). In Colorado, the Braves will be looking for help from Cy Young contender Adam Wainwright who will toe the rubber vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

Trivia tidbit: Vazquez won his 15th game last night and lowered his earned run average to 2.83, which is currently sixth best in the league. Greg Maddux was the last Braves pitcher with at least 15 wins to post an earned run average that low (2002 - 16 wins, 2.62 ERA). Jair Jurrjens is scheduled to start Monday vs. Florida and he'll take the mound with 13 wins and a 2.70 earned run average that ranks fourth in the league. If Jurrjens beats the Fish, he'll get a shot at 15 wins next weekend and conceivably he could give the Braves two pitchers this season with Maddux-like numbers (Derek Lowe already has 15 wins, just not the Maddux-like ERA).

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Braves get the night off and some help from the Padres

Oscar Salazar, Nick Hundley, and Tony Gwynn, Jr. batted six, seven, and eight in the Padres' lineup last night, but combined to go 7 for 12 with a triple, home run, and three RBI vs. Colorado. Not bad, especially considering the Elias Sports Bureau dug up this tidbit: the Padres are batting a major league worst .227 from the six-seven-eight slots on the season.

 

The lower part of the Padres' lineup rallied past the Rockies 5-4, overcoming an early 3-0 deficit and scoring four runs in the final two innings. Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki took the loss in stride, insisting afterwards, "We control our destiny . . . we're in a good spot."

 

And he's right, of course.

 

And yet . . .  Atlanta is now only 3.5 games back with ten games left on its schedule. Colorado has just nine games left on its schedule. Atlanta was off on Thursday, preparing for a crucial three-game series that begins today in Washington.

 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but a Braves win and a Rockies loss tonight cuts the deficit to 2.5, and that's vitally important for more than just the obvious reasons - yeah, we want to catch those guys, but since we can only play one game at a time, a deficit of just 2.5 games and we can force the issue all the way through the season's final weekend when the Rockies must travel to LA and the Braves get to host the Nationals.

 

If that happens, I imagine Tulowitzki and his teammates, who insist they aren't feeling any pressure yet, might start to get a little jittery.

 

Hey, you never know.

 

The bottom line is Atlanta must sweep the Nationals this weekend and hope that St. Louis can take two of three in Colorado. The Rockies will get next Monday off and then close out the season with a six-game road trip - three in Milwaukee and three in LA.

 

There are no more off days for the Braves - three games at Washington, three at home vs. Florida, and then four at home vs. Washington.

 

After struggling in June, Atlanta won 16 games in July, 17 in August, and entering play today the club is 13-8 in September - just enough to make things interesting with ten games to go. "Anything's possible," according to Bobby Cox, who added, "keep winning and see what they [Rockies] do."

 

After a sizzling 21-7 June, Colorado has kept the pressure up, winning 15 games in July, 16 in August, and posting a 14-8 record to this point in September.

 

How do the Braves and Rockies matchup vs. their final opponents?

 

Atlanta is 7-4 vs. Washington and 7-8 vs. Florida. Colorado is 4-0 vs. St. Louis, 3-0 vs. Milwaukee, and 3-12 vs. LA.

 

I get that every game is an independent event, for sure - but one can hope that the prospect of sweeping two season series' is a daunting one at best. So while the Braves realistically can hope to sweep the Nationals this weekend, I can't see the Rockies doing better than 4-2 vs. St. Louis and Milwaukee. If we're lucky, it might even be 2-4.

 

Of course what the Rockies do only matters if the Braves take care of business vs. Washington.

 

Javier Vazquez gets the nod tonight and he's the right guy to toe the rubber as the Braves look to finish strong - he's 3-0 with a 0.78 earned run average in his last three starts.

 

And the Rockies, well, they get to face Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter tonight - so you never know, this time tomorrow it's entirely possible that Braves fans will have even more reason to be optimistic about October baseball.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Braves not done yet

Bobby Cox is coming back for one more season but that doesn't mean his club has written off the rest of this year - at least not yet. Atlanta completed a sweep of the decimated Mets last night. The 5-2 win was the eighth straight for Atlanta vs. New York - and it was an absolute must to keep the club's fledgling playoff hopes alive.

 

The most painful part of this offseason, if Atlanta falls short of October baseball, will be knowing the Braves chances were ruined not by the Mets, but by the Padres and Reds. Atlanta's pivotal seven-game trip to Philly and Florida that began the last week of August was preceded by a three-game set vs. San Diego, at home, and the lowly Padres took two of three. After losing two of three in Philly, Atlanta responded by winning the first two games of a four-game set in FL - but then lost the final two games of that series.

 

Cincinnati was supposed to be the Braves get-well team - a three-game home set against a second-tier club (no offense, I'm writing a book on Cincinnati and I grew up a huge Reds fan).

 

In dire need of a sweep to get back on track, instead, the Braves were swept by the Reds, tying a season high five-game losing streak at the worst possible time.

 

That was the point I think most people believed the Braves season was done. 

 

Well, not yet.

 

The Braves won a season high seven straight (would have been nine straight except for Rafael Soriano's ninth-inning meltdown vs. Houston) to get back in it - and last night's win vs. New York made it eight out of the last ten, and two sweeps of the Mets in two weeks. Admittedly the odds of Atlanta overtaking Colorado are slim - however, for the first time there are no teams between the Braves and the Rockies and, every bit as important, the schedule heavily favors Atlanta as the season winds down.

 

The Braves are down four with ten games to go - but bear in mind, that deficit was eight games with twenty to go. In the last ten games, Atlanta was 8-2 while Colorado was just 4-6.

 

And if we do that over the next ten games . . . well, you can do the math.

 

Colorado took advantage of a ten-game home stand against some weak opponents earlier this month, going 9-1 vs. New York, Arizona, and Cincinnati - but the Rockies now must face two of the league's top teams in the Cardinals and Dodgers to close out the season.

 

As for the Braves, well, it's almost too good to be true, but . . .

 

Atlanta plays seven of its final ten games against the worst team in baseball, the Washington Nationals, including four straight at home to close out the season.

 

If the Braves can close the gap to two games then things will be very interesting one week from Friday - Colorado will be in LA, and Atlanta will host Washington. And don't think the Cardinals or Dodgers will roll over for the Rockies just because their playoff spots will be secured already.

 

Just check the standings, St. Louis, LA, and Philly are fighting for the league's best record and home field advantage in the playoffs - and then check out the Dodgers won-loss record at home this season, and you better believe Joe Torre's players understand how significant next weekend's series is for his ball club.

 

And that bodes well for the Braves, assuming of course, the Nats don't hose us like the Padres and Reds.

 

Trivia tidbits: Bobby Cox's plan to manage the Braves one more season will allow him to join some elite company. Next year will be his 25th as the Braves manager, making him just the third skipper in baseball history to manage one ball club for at least 25 years. Connie Mack managed the Athletics for 50 years and John McGraw managed the Giants for 31 years.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Now we need some help

There isn't much left to say about the Braves postseason chances after Atlanta lost its last two games of a four-game set vs. Florida. Braves fans were thinking sweep after winning the first two games, and why not, after all we had Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson queued up and ready to toe the rubber.

 

Any chance for a sweep came undone in the sixth inning on Wednesday when the Marlins scored five times - and the Braves were undone in the sixth inning again on Thursday, this time surrendering six runs in an 8-3 loss.

 

Ricky Nolasco got the win for Florida. I'd never have guessed he'd be the guy beating the Braves in a pivotal game after the way he started the season: he was just 2-6 with a 7.62 earned run average during his first 11 starts - plus, the Braves kicked him around pretty good in Atlanta not even two weeks ago. In his past 15 starts, however, Nolasco is now 8-2 with a 3.87 earned run average.

 

Atlanta is going to need a lot of help the rest of the way.

 

We did get a little bit last night. Pedro Martinez outpitched Tim Lincecum as the Phillies beat the Giants 2-1, and Pat Misch, who entered last night's Mets vs. Rockies contest with a career record of 0-8, earned his first big league win, 8-3.

 

Atlanta began its seven-game trip to Philly and FL trailing Colorado by 4.5 games in the Wild Card standings, and despite a 3-4 record on the trip, the Braves come home trailing the Rockies by four games. Only problem, we have seven fewer games to play now, and we lost ground to the Giants who now lead the Braves by three games.

 

The Braves need help from the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals this weekend - San Francisco travels to Milwaukee, Colorado hosts Arizona, and Florida visits Washington.

 

Of course those games will have little meaning to Braves fans if our team can't take care of business at home vs. Cincinnati. After losing our last home series vs. San Diego, and missing two chances to win a road series at FL, I feel fortunate we're not past the point of still caring about the Wild Card. If Atlanta doesn't take care of Cincinnati, however, then we'll probably be there.

Why I'm never going to win Streak for the Cash

I'm never going to win ESPN's $1,000,000 Streak for the Cash. If for some reason you're not familiar with SFTC, first off, what planet have you been living on? And secondly, the idea is that every day ESPN offers a series of matchups that you choose from and your goal is to pick them correctly and build the longest winning streak possible. The seven people who build the longest streak win $10,000 automatically, plus they have a 1 in 7 shot at winning $1,000,000 during a "pick-off" this December.

 

One of the matchups listed yesterday was Minnesota vs. Chicago.

 

And the Twins vs. White Sox matchup illustrates perfectly why I'm never going to win this stupid game. I lost an eight-game streak on Sunday night when I picked Atlanta to beat Philly. Oh well. Then I got going again, winning twice on Monday and twice on Tuesday to get back to W4.

 

And then I picked the Twins on Wednesday.

 

joe nathan.jpgMinnesota led 2-0 in the ninth with All-Star closer Joe Nathan on the mound and Chicago down to its last strike. And the result? Back-to-back home runs tied the game 2-2, back-to-back walks put the go-ahead run in scoring position, and a single and a wild pitch took care of the rest as Chicago won 4-2.

 

Back to zero for me. Again.

 

Then today I learn that Joe Nathan pitched 448 consecutive games without allowing more than one home run - until last night.

 

Are you kidding me? That's when I realized I will never win this game. I should have figured it out a month ago when I was at W11. I had the SFTC page opened on my laptop and was mulling over which matchup I should pick to get to W12 when I decided to go downstairs and get something to drink.

 

I came back a few minutes later and my eight-year-old niece was sitting at my laptop. "You like Tampa, right?" she asked me. I told her yes. "Good," she said. "Cause that's who I picked for you."

 

Uh oh.

 

In a panic, I tried to hit the "cancel" icon at the top of the page but the matchup was already locked.

 

And it was back to zero for me. Again.

 

wes helms.jpgI understand now, finally, that there really is no point for me to continue playing this game. I'll probably keep doing it, but there's no point. And I suspect a lot of Braves fans are in a similar mood today. Last night's loss was tough. We had the lead, gave up a big inning, rallied to get close, hit a ninth-inning homer to tie it, and . . . lost on a walk-off.

 

The fact Colorado and San Francisco both won last night hurts even worse. I know that right now there are a lot of Atlanta fans who feel the same way about the Braves as I do about SFTC - sure we're going to keep playing, but what's the point because we're not going to catch the Rockies and Giants, right?

 

Well, I'm not giving up on Atlanta.

 

 I just won 12 of 13 on SFTC and all I got for it is . . . back to zero. If the Braves, on the other hand, could have just one stretch like that - just one! - then we'll be in this thing right up to the end. And you never know. You just really never know.

 

Trivia tidbit: Too bad Pete Moylan wasn't pitching in the ninth yesterday for Atlanta - actually, I wish he could have pitched the ninth for Minnesota too. Moylan set a major league record yesterday because he did not give up a home run. It was his 75th appearance this season and no one has taken him yard yet, and that gives him the longest such streak to start a season in baseball history.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Major League Baseball (Foreword by Zack Hample)

New York Yankees

Braves temporarily rooting for Philly, NY

It's hard to do, you know. Pulling for your biggest rivals. And yet that's exactly what the Braves will be doing tonight as Atlanta looks to take its third straight from Florida.

 

tim hudson.jpgTim Hudson was great on Tuesday, pitching into the sixth inning and earning the 4-3 win in his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. Bobby Cox said, "For his first outing, in starting three hours late, hanging out here all day, wondering when the first pitch was going to be about ten different times, I thought he did great."

 

Colorado also won last night, beating the Mets 8-3, but San Francisco lost 1-0 to the Phillies. Atlanta is now two back of the Giants, but remains three back of the Rockies in the Wild Card chase. And that puts the Braves in an unusual position - it's time to cheer on two of our fiercest rivals: the Mets and Phillies.

 

Okay, so maybe cheer is too strong a word. The point, however, is that at least for today and Thursday we need Philly to beat San Francisco and we need NY to beat Colorado. So we need to put aside our normal feelings about those two division rivals, and as the Braves take the field tonight vs. Florida, at least wish Philly and NY good luck because if those guys win tonight the team it helps the most will be Atlanta.

 

Atlanta, Florida, San Francisco, and Colorado all have 30 games left on the schedule - the Giants and Rockies go head-to-head three more times, as do the Braves and Marlins after this current series wraps up on Thursday, but we don't get any more shots head-to-head against the Giants or Rockies.

 

So for tonight and tomorrow at least, this Braves fan is rooting for Philly and NY.

"A huge win"

I think Chipper Jones summed up last night's victory vs. the Marlins best: "It's a huge win, probably the biggest win of the year, especially sitting back and seeing how the first six innings went. To come back, come off the mat and put up enough runs to win and then some off of [Johnson] is a tremendous boost for us."

 

No kidding.

 

kawakami.jpgA loss and the Braves would have fallen four back in the Wild Card hunt and trailed three teams. Not that the road to the postseason is any easier because of a single win, but last night's victory was  like clearing a huge hurdle considering the pitching matchup strongly favored the Marlins. Josh Johnson was outstanding, but Kenshin Kawakami got the job done - and he got the victory.

 

Now only three games back of the Giants and Rockies, Atlanta's playoff push can get another shot of adrenaline today when Tim Hudson makes his first start in more than a year. If he can deliver a strong outing and the Braves can take the first two games of this series, then we'll definitely get a boost in our postseason spirits.

 

What we have no control over: tonight Colorado starts a long home-stand against weak opponents, but at least the Giants begin a six-game trip against the Phillies and Brewers.

 

What we can control: the Braves play the Marlins tonight, and we have to take the one-game-at-a-time approach. Tonight's matchup: Tim Hudson vs. Anibal Sanchez. Hudson's last start was July 23, 2008, and it was also on the road vs. Florida. Sanchez was horrible at home last week against the Mets, but he was brilliant a week and a half ago in Atlanta.

 

And for tonight's game that means . . . absolutely nothing.

 

One game at a time. That's how it works. And for the rest of the season, every win will be huge.

 

Trivia tidbit: Omar Infante got the clutch two-out hit vs. Josh Johnson that gave the Braves a 2-1 lead last night. He's now batting 14 for 36 (.389) this season with runners in scoring position, but that's nothing new for Infante. He's batting .370 with runners in scoring position over the past three seasons - and that's the highest average in baseball among players who batted at least 150 times in that situation during the past three years.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

Major League Baseball: An Interactive Guide to the World of Sports (Foreword by Zack Hample)

New York Yankees: An Interactive Guide to the World of Sports

Braves outlook with one month to go

N.L. Wild Card Standings

 

Colorado 72-59 (31 games left)

San Francisco 72-59 (31 games left)

Atlanta 68-62 (32 games left)

Florida 68-62 (32 games left)

 

After getting swept in San Francisco the Colorado Rockies are in the midst of a five-game skid that has dropped the club into a tie for the Wild Card lead. Colorado returns home on Tuesday, however, where the club is 36-26 on the season. And the schedule for the next few days definitely favors the Rockies.

 

Colorado has ten straight home games vs. three of the worst teams in the league:

 

3 vs. NY Mets

3 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

4 vs. Cincinnati Reds

 

San Francisco, riding high after Sunday's comeback vs. Colorado, hits the road for six games after a day off on Monday, after which the Giants return home to face a Padres club trying to play spoiler in the Wild Card race:

 

3 @ Philadelphia Phillies

3 @ Milwaukee Brewers

3 vs. San Diego Padres

 

Florida is 3-3 so far on a ten-game home stand that wraps up with four against division rival and fellow-Wild Card contender Atlanta. The Marlins hit the road later this week, but still have a favorable schedule for the nine games following the Braves series:

 

4 vs. Atlanta Braves

3 @ Washington Nationals

3 @ NY Mets

3 vs. Washington Nationals

 

And then we have the Braves. Sunday's finale in Philly was a well-pitched game by Jair Jurrjens and Joe Blanton and it would have been tough for whoever lost, but it was an especially tough loss for the Braves. I kept expecting a game-tying homer from Philly, and sure enough that's exactly what Chase Utley did. We were lucky to escape a bases-loaded jam in the sixth, but our luck ran out fast after that.

 

Chipper's throwing error hurt in the seventh, and then after Chipper singled to get us close in the eighth, a great defensive play by Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins turned a hard hit ball by Brian McCann into a double play.

 

But those are the breaks, and you have to roll with them.

 

Brad Lidge closed us out in the ninth for the second time this series, and now the Braves head to Florida looking to break a nasty streak: we've lost the first game in five consecutive series. That makes it tough to win any series, and right now, Atlanta needs to go on a strong run of series' victories to have any shot at catching both Colorado and San Francisco. Upcoming games:

 

4 @ Florida Marlins

3 vs. Cincinnati Reds

3 @ Houston Astros

3 @ St. Louis Cardinals

 

Tim Hudson was supposed to make his return to the Braves rotation today, but has been pushed back until Tuesday. Today's matchup: Kawakami vs. Johnson.

 

Test your Atlanta Braves IQ.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: An Interactive Guide to the World of Sports (Foreword by Zack Hample)

New York Yankees: An Interactive Guide to the World of Sports